Does an Inverted Yield Curve
Really Signal Recession?

An inverted yield curve—short-term yields above long-term yields—has often preceded U.S. recessions. But the gap between the first inversion and the downturn can be months or even years, and markets may rally before they fall.

Treat inversion as a risk warning, not a standalone trading signal. Credit spreads, employment, and the earnings cycle should be read alongside it. The curve describes expectations, not a timetable.

These are personal notes, not investment advice.