Why a Fed Rate Cut Doesn’t Always Lift Stocks
A cut is only the starting point. What matters is why the Fed cuts, how fast, and how much is already priced in.
U.S. Finance Notes
A slower look at
U.S. finance.
Short notes on rates, inflation, and markets — and the questions worth thinking through slowly.
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Fed
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Inflation
U.S. Inflation: Look Beyond CPI
CPI gets the headlines; PCE is closer to the Fed’s view. Read both, or one month can mislead you.
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Markets
Does an Inverted Yield Curve Really Signal Recession?
An inversion is a warning, not a countdown. It flags risk, but it cannot set a position on its own.